The overall characteristics of titanium dioxide products in 2023 are still oversupply: many factories have added new production capacity during the year, and the overall supply scale of the industry has increased; however, the corresponding increase in new investment in the downstream terminals is insufficient, the demand side has limited digestion of supply, and the supply pressure of the industry has not diminished. . This is also in line with our judgment at the beginning of the year that titanium dioxide is still in the oversupply stage. While prices are running at an overall low level, seasonal changes in supply and demand have caused prices to rise and fall in stages.
China Titanium dioxide price data from 2022 to 2023
First of all, it is expected that the domestic titanium dioxide market price trend in 2020 can be roughly divided into four stages with two consecutive rises and falls: bottom rebound and upward movement (January-May) - summer expectations weaken (June-July) - autumn stocking starts (August 8) -October), wait and see the decline in winter (November-December). Overall, the logic of price formation throughout the year is still composed of supply and demand, cost and expectations.
China Rutile titanium dioxide price chart(2022-2023)
Prices at the beginning of the year were basically at a low level for the whole year. From January to March, the market had basically digested the negative effects of long-term weak demand. The market supply and demand gradually turned into a tight balance. Superimposed on the impact of increased seasonal demand, the supply and demand game was relatively relaxed, and upstream raw materials The slight increase in price provided relatively strong support for titanium dioxide, and the market price rose steadily from March to May. As the release of stage demand was completed, the cooling of market transactions in June and July and the accumulation of supplier inventory made the price increase again. A slight correction; due to weak prices from June to July, the load of titanium dioxide factories has been significantly reduced. At this stage, downstream stockpiles are concentrated in the off-season. After the inventory is digested quickly, the market supply turns to a tight state. In addition, with the increase in raw material prices, the supply side has increased. If the price conditions are met, prices will rise from August to October. From November to December, the autumn release on the market demand side is completed, and the actual consumption in the downstream in winter is low. The market price may enter a period of decline as demand weakens and the transaction market cools down. It is estimated that throughout 2023, the average price of sulfate-based rutile titanium dioxide will be 15,743 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.99% from the average price in 2022; the average price of anatase titanium dioxide during the year will be 13,673 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.00% from the average price in 2022.
At the same time, since the negative impact of weak long-term demand has been basically digested at the beginning of the year, the price increases and decreases during the year are mostly due to phased supply and demand changes caused by seasonal changes in downstream purchases of titanium dioxide. The overall demand side is slightly ahead of schedule. , that is, most downstream companies choose to get goods at the low price point before the peak season (March, August), which also causes the price to rise slightly ahead of our traditional peak season division. This is a more prominent new feature of this year's market.
We believe that new production projects of titanium dioxide products will continue to be released in 2024, but the terminal plastic coating industry has entered the stock development stage. Therefore, changes in the oversupply of titanium dioxide products and downstream products will still take time to digest, and industry chain profits may continue to shift upstream. , at the same time, the impact of raw material prices may be transmitted downstream along the industrial chain, and the low price operation stage may continue.
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